Lucid Air Deliveries Still Below 1,500 In Q3 2023

Lucid Group has just released vehicle production and delivery numbers for the third quarter of 2023 and they are worrying once again.

During the period, the company produced 1,550 Lucid Air luxury all-electric cars, which is 32 percent less than a year ago and the lowest result since the early beginning of the company (2021/2022).

However, there is a catch. Lucid says also that it produced “over 700 additional vehicles in transit to Saudi Arabia for final assembly,” which would bring the total to over 2,250 completed and partially completed vehicles. This number would be closer to the average for the first half of the year, but not higher than a year ago (2,282).

Let’s recall that the new assembly facility in Saudi Arabia (which owns Lucid through its Public Investment Fund) was launched in September. As we understand, the vehicles will be locally assembled and used locally in Saudi Arabia with an export option to some other markets in the future.

In terms of vehicle deliveries, 1,457 Lucid Airs were delivered in Q3, which is only 4 percent more than a year ago and a similar level to Q1 and Q2.

This is a worrying sign because we are accustomed to EV sales increasing, especially quickly in the case of start-ups (due to the low base at the beginning). Rivian, for example, already achieved a volume an order of magnitude higher than Lucid (both started production at a similar time).

Additionally, the difference between production and deliveries over the past seven quarters amounted to 4,581 vehicles (excluding vehicles sent to Saudi Arabia) so there should be no shortage of cars for sale.

Lucid Q3’2023 results (YOY change):

• Total production: 1,550 (down 32%)
  “plus over 700 additional vehicles in transit to Saudi Arabia for final assembly”
• Total deliveries: 1,457 (up 4%)

So far this year, Lucid produced over 6,000 cars and delivered 4,267 cars, which is significantly more than a year ago. On top of that come vehicles sent to Saudi Arabia for final assembly (they will be counted as produced in the following quarters, as we understand).

Lucid Q1-Q3’2023 results (YOY change):

• Total production: 6,037 (up 64%)
• Total deliveries: 4,267 (up 75%)

For reference, in 2022, Lucid delivered 4,369 electric cars and produced 7,180. Cumulatively, Lucid delivered 8,761 electric cars, compared to more than 13,200 produced.

In its Q4 2022 financial report, Lucid announced a production volume guidance for 2023 of 10,000-14,000 vehicles (2,500-3,500 per quarter on average). We are doubtful whether Lucid will be able to achieve even the lower value because it would require almost 4,000 units in Q4.

There was a similar story in 2022 when Lucid failed to achieve 20,000 units (the target was later reduced to 12,000-14,000 and 6,000-7,000).

On the positive side, Lucid recently expanded its offer with the entry-level Lucid Air Pure (rear-wheel drive), which starts at an MSRP of $78,900 and the top-of-the-line Lucid Air Sapphire – customer deliveries already started. A slight increase in Lucid Air registrations in the United States was noted during the month of August.

Lucid plans to host a conference call to discuss its third quarter 2023 financial results on November 7, 2023.